The CIS draws: Percentages from the history channel

It is often argued that the blood of blue-bloods gets ever bluer.

It’s also said that conference strength (as determined by the previous success of its teams in national tournaments), along with coaching, are two of the best predictors of postseason titles. Of course, it’s probably equally valid to say that statistics don’t just lie, they lie, lie, lie.

Still, it’s always nice to have a little fun with hoops mathematics.

But before crunching all the numbers to see if they can be used to forecast the outcomes of the Canadian Interuniversity Sport men’s and women’s basketball championships in Vancouver and Fredericton, respectively, it’s worth noting that most coaches believe that a tough schedule, in both preseason and conference play, better prepares a team for the rigours of one-and-done competition.

It is also a given that savvy, experienced coaching can be a tremendous asset in steering a squad through postseason adversity. The irony is that the 16 teams in this year’s two national draws have never been guided by so inexperienced a crew of coaches. Nary a one has previously won a national title. The upside, though, is that two will soon join the pantheon of winners.

Will it be because they put their troops through the rigours of a difficult schedule and toiled in a historically tough conference?

Probably, says the dean of CIS coaches, Steve Konchalski at St. Francis Xavier, who has won three CIS men’s titles. “It helps in many ways: one, you are battle tested; two, you learn how to win close games; and three, you learn how to deal with adversity.”

“Even in exhibition play, while some coaches schedule very carefully to worry about national rankings, I have always taken the perspective that my main focus is to develop my team and put them in as many challenging situations as possible,” Konchalski adds. “For example, this Christmas, Ottawa University participated in the Laval tournament while other top ranked teams, in fact, most other top five teams, either did not play or had training camps elsewhere. Despite the fact that they lost a game, I kept them in the number one spot in the country on my top 10 vote just because I appreciated the fact that they were willing to put their team and record on the line while others did not.”

A tough schedule, and a few losses, can help a team to “refocus,” as well as to identify deficiencies that need work, says Saskatchewan women’s coach Lisa Thomaidis. “You learn so much more from losing than from winning.”

Playing in a tough conference is also great preparation because a team will invariably be confronted with different styles of play and must then build its repertoire of responses, she adds. “It puts that experience in your little tool kit and you can always kind of re-visit it, and you know that you’ve been there, done that, before. So, the greater range that you can play in terms of styles and systems and defences, is going to help you at the end.”

Ryerson coach Carly Clarke, who steered her Rams to the OUA women’s title, concurs. “It’s definitely important to get some challenging games, to be able to tune up and have some weaknesses exposed, even if that means losing some games. I think that was important for us throughout the season. We lost a couple of close ones but we learned how to play in close games.”

Playing in a strong conference has historically been a benefit, Clarke says, adding that blue-chip players are moreinclined to toil in a league in which they’ll face top-flight foes “because they know they’re going to get better in practice and they’re going to get better in games. For development of an individual and a team, that stuff’s important.”

That, of course, supports the proposition that success breeds success.

Which leads us to the devious math and the question: Can hoops history, specifically conference records in previous CIS tournaments, as well as the won-loss percentages of coaches, be used as an outlandish predictor of future titlists?

In the previous 53 men’s tournaments, Ontario University Athletics squads have captured 23 (43.4%) titles. Fourteen champs (26.4%) have come from Canada West, nine (17%) from Atlantic University Sport, five (9.4%) from the Great Plains Athletic Association, one (1.9%) from the Réseau du sport étudiant du Québec, one (1.9%) from the defunct Ontario Intercollegiate Athletic Association and none from the equally-defunct Ottawa-St. Lawrence Intercollegiate Association.

The percentages shift slightly based on current conference affiliation, what with four GPAC teams now part of CanWest and a fifth in the OUA, while Concordia (which won its title as a member of the OUA) is now part of the RSEQ, and teams from OSLIAA bolted for either the RSEQ or OUA when the league folded. To wit: OUA 23 titles (43.4%); CanWest 19 (35.8%), AUS nine (17%) and RSEQ two (3.7%).

Excluding bronze medal and consolation games, there have been 366 games in CIS men’s tournament draws.

Based on original conference affiliation, GPAC teams had a record of 46-35, winning 56.7% of their games, followed by the OIAA 5-4 (55.5%); CanWest 95-81 (54%); OUA 130-115 (53.1%); AUS 75-81 (48.1%); RSEQ 14-41 (25.4%); and OSLIAA 1-9 (11.1%).

Based on current conference affiliation, CanWest teams have a 138-112 record, winning 55.2% of their games, followed by the OUA 135-123 (52.3%); AUS 75-81 (48.1%), and RSEQ 18-50 (26.4%).

Eliminate all games in which a team played against a rival from its own conference, and CanWest’s winning percentage rises to 56.9% (103-78), while OUA’s rises to 53% (106-94), AUS’s to 48.2% (71-76), and RSEQ’s remains unchanged, as none of the league’s teams have ever played one another in the draw.

Of course, it could be argued that a lot of those games occurred so far back in the past that they’re all but meaningless and don’t account for recent trends.

What are the percentages in the 72 games which have been played in the past decade, in which the OUA has won nine titles and CanWest one?

Well, the OUA’s winning percentage soars to 64.5% (40-22), while CanWest’s drops to 51% (24-23), AUS’s to 8-17 (32%) and RSEQ is winless in 10 starts. Eliminate games against conference rivals and it is noteworthy that OUA teams have not lost a game to an opponent from another conference since 2012. Overall, the OUA teams are 23-12 (65.7%) and CanWest 19-18 (51.3%), while the winning percentages of the AUS and RSEQ remain unchanged. Twelve of the last 20 finalists have come from the OUA, seven from CanWest and one from AUS, while 19 of the last 40 semi-finalists have come from the OUA, 15 from CanWest and six from the AUS.

What do those numbers imply for this year’s draw, which, rather remarkably, features four quarterfinals involving teams that have never met one another on the winner’s side of previous brackets?

Well, using conference winning percentages over the course of 53 years, it would mean that U.B.C. would stun Ryerson, Calgary would defeat McGill, Thompson Rivers would upset Carleton and uOttawa would thump Dalhousie. That would set the stage for a pair of CanWest wins in the semis and a national title for the Dinos, Thunderbirds or Wolfpack.

The outcome turns decidedly in the OUA’s favourusing calculations based only on games over the past decade. Only Calgary would emerge from the quarterfinals to challenge Ryerson, Carleton and uOttawa, and the national title would be awarded tothe Rams, Ravens or Gee-Gees.

In short, pick your preferred spin.

In the 44 previous women’s draws, 22 titlists (50%) have emerged from CanWest, 13 (38.4%) from the OUA, seven (15.9%) from GPAC, two from the RSEQ and none from the AUS. Using current conference affiliations, CanWest’s title tally rises to 29 and its success rate to 65.9%.

Again excluding bronze medal and consolation games, there have been 289 games in women’s draws. Based on original conference affiliation, CanWest teams have won 63.4% (128-74) of their games, followed by GPAC58% (47-34); OUA 44.8% (69-85); AUS 32.3% (23-48); and RSEQ 31.4% (22-48). Using current conference affiliation, CanWest’s winning percentage dips slightly to 62.1% (174-106) and OUA’s to 44.5% (70-87) while those of AUS and RSEQ remain unchanged.

Eliminate games in which conference rivals met and it quickly becomes apparent that when a CanWest team loses, it’s usually to another team from the conference. The league’s winning percentage rises to a staggering 68.6% (129-59), while OUA’s dips to 43.6% (58-75), and AUS’s rises marginally to 31.9% (22-47). No RSEQ team has ever faced a league foe in a draw.

Over the past decade, teams from CanWest and the OUA have each won five titles. Of the 20 finalists, 11 have come from CanWest, six from the OUA, two from the AUS and one from the RSEQ. Of the 40 semi-finalists, 21 have come from CanWest, nine from the OUA, eight from the AUS and two from the RSEQ. There was only one year (2011) in which CanWest did not have at least two representatives in the semis.

But the numbers indicate an uptick in the fortunes of both OUA and AUS teams in the 70 games played over the course of just the past decade. The OUA’s winning percentage rises to 54% (20-17), closely followed by CanWest 53.6% (37-32). Meanwhile, AUS’s percentage soars to 43.4% (10-13), while RSEQ’s drops to 21.4% (3-11). The percentages shift back in CanWest’s favour measuring only games against teams from other conferences, which suggests the primary reason for its decline over the past decade is that tournament organizers are more frequently pitting CanWest teams against one another. In the last 10 draws, CanWest teams are 28-17 (62.2%) against foes from other conferences, while the OUA is 17-17 (50%), the AUS 9-12 (42.8%) and the record of RSEQ is unchanged.

What does that imply for the 2016 draw, which features two quarterfinals involving teams that have met in the past (uOttawa over Saskatchewan in 2012; and Saint Mary’s overAlberta in 2014)?

Using conference winning percentages over the course of 44 years, it would mean Saskatchewan, Regina and Alberta would storm into the semis, while host New Brunswick would edge top-seeded McGill in a tight fixture. Either the Huskies, Cougars or Pandas would win all the marbles.

Using only results from the past decade would make it a Ryerson-Ottawa final. But using only those calculations based on games involving teams from other conferences would again hand the trophy to a western powerhouse.

Once again, pick your preferred spin.

Of course, none of those calculations takes into account the impact of all those crafty coaches who got their teams into the draws.

On the men’s side, three coaches are making their inaugural appearance at nationals, though that isn’t necessarily a barrier to success. Obviously, Windsor’s Bob Samaras, was the first to accomplish the task, when he won the first tournament in 1963. Windsor’s EddiChittaroduplicated the feat in 1969, Guelph’s Garney Henley in 1974, Concordia’s John Dore in 1990 and Western’s Craig Boydell in 1991. Typically, though, a coach needs to learn the ropes before steering a squad to a title. That’s even true for legends. Victoria’s Ken Shields, for example, took three teams to nationals (Laurentian in 1976 and the Vikes in 1978 and 1979) before winning the first of his seven crowns in 1980, while Carleton’s Dave Smart lost in 2001 before capturing the first of his 11 titles in 2003.

The CIS tournament records (winner’s-side bracket only) of the eight coaches, by seed, are:
1. Ryerson’s Patrick Tatham 0-0
2. Carleton’s Rob Smart: 0-0
3. uOttawa’s James Derouin: 5-3 (62.5%)
4. Calgary’s Dan Vanhooren: 3-3 (50%)
5. McGill’s David DeAveiro: 2-5, including 2-2 at uOttawa (28.5%)
6. Dalhousie’s Rick Plato: 0-1
7. Thompson Rivers Scott Clark: 0-0
8. U.B.C.’s Kevin Hanson: 5-9 (35.7%)

None of the eight coaches in the women’s draw are making their first appearance at nationals. Their records:
1. McGill’s Ryan Thorne: 2-4 (33.3%)
2. Saskatchewan’s Lisa Thomaidis: 5-8 (38.5%)
3. Saint Mary’s Scott Munro: 3-3 (50%)
4. Regina’s Dave Taylor: 7-5 (58.3%)
5. Ryerson’s Carly Clarke: 0-1 (0%)
6. Alberta’s Scott Edwards: 3-4 (42.8%)
7. uOttawa’s Andy Sparks: 1-4 (20%)
8. New Brunswick’s Jeff Speedy: 0-2, while coaching at Regina (0%)

The mathematical upshot?

Add conference winning percentages (whether historicalor strictly over the past decade) to acoach’s winning percentages and the calculations inexorably lead to the conclusion that either Regina, Alberta or Saskatchewan (in that order) will hoist the Bronze Baby this weekend, while either uOttawa, Calgary or U.B.C. (in that order) will lift the W.P. McGee Trophy.

To be sure, it’s likely all 16 coaches would contend that they have never seen such a sad and pathetic, if not preposterous, demonstration of math or logic in their life-time. But that, my friends, is simply what fans and other crazed observers of the Canadian hoops scene do for idle amusement.

Enjoy the games.